The Relationship between Star Rating and SNF COVID Occupancy

SNF Occupancy has been an ongoing concern for operators, regulators, and SNFists alike. Much has been written about the topic, and theories abound about rebound and the like. 


I wanted to create a simple distillation of the relationship between star rating and occupancy during COVID. So, what I did was take the star rating of all SNF’s circa Nov-19 and then compare that to occupancy circa Nov-21. I then fit an ordinal regression to tease out the relationship between the Nov-19 star rating and Nov-21 occupancy. 


As the plot shows:

  • Star ratings (with the exception of 3 Stars) converged in probability at around 60% occupancy

  • Star ratings of 4 and 5 showed the highest probability of high occupancy (especially above 65% occupancy

  • A star rating of 5 was especially robust above an occupancy of 80%, even relative to a star rating of 4

  • A star rating of 3 showed little movement across the spectrum of SNF occupancy – remaining at around a 15% probability

  • Star ratings of 1 and 2 showed the highest probability of low occupancy (especially below 50% occupancy)

  • A star rating of 1 was especially fragile below an occupancy of 40%, even relative to a star rating of 2

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